Monday, November 25, 2013

Williams R

Williams R is an indicator to know saturated area buy and sell currencies from saturated. A price said to be entering the area of saturated buy when movement is rising and have come to the peak area so as not to allow a further increase. In this area, buyers no longer possible to perform a purchase because the currency has been too expensive to be purchased. Thus a currency rising saturated area and enter the purchase in the currency will stop going up and will soon undergo a correction/reduction back to its normal point.

The same is true in saturated concept to sell. The difference here is the selling price means saturated the currencies have been too cheap so that the seller is no longer possible to sell its own currency because the price is too cheap for sale. Thus a currency that is experiencing a decrease in saturated areas and then entered the selling then it is no longer the currency exchange rate will soon stop going down and will again increase.

Saturated Area buy and sell this saturation measured by r. Williams, the trick is to compare the closing time of the last highest price lowest price reduced on the desired period.
For more details see the following picture:
Williams R


Now the next question is where are the saturated area buy and sell according to the saturated R Williams
If you have ever studied indicators of saturated buy-sell saturated such as RSI, then we think Williams R is not difficult for you to interpret. Williams R reading exactly the same with the RSI. The difference is that Williams R is the range 0 to-100.

When Williams R refer to figures 8 and above (i.e. 0 to-20) is a saturated area buy and vice-versa-80 down (-80 to-100) is a saturated area of selling. The boundary between the two areas (-20 to-80) is the neutral point where prices still have the possibility to rise or fall further. Midpoint Williams R is-50.
Well, similar to the RSI instead? Now let's look at the following image carefully:
Williams R


Having regard to the above image seems more than enough to bring a sense of the use of indicators on this one. It's good you read RSI in advance in order to deepen the use of indicators that are such oscillator Williams R.
The advantages and disadvantages
Now we come to the part of the advantages and disadvantages of Williams r. as in other oscillator indicators, Williams R has the same advantages and disadvantages.

Pros:
  • Ease in reading
  • Relatively more accurate than the RSI to perfect his creation is indeed due to RSI.
  • Able to predict price movement faster than an indicator of trend (trend indicator)

Disadvantages:
  • Often cause false signals because its too sensitive (marked with a visible indicator of curly curve). For it is advisable to extend the period of Williams R to 20 (default is 2) or add the Moving Average on Williams R.
  • Williams R has a limited range. Sometimes prices move in a very Bullish conditions or very Bearish. In a State so Williams R can no longer provide the signal Open Buy and Sell because the price moves in one direction in a long range. For it is recommended to use the indicator trend to be tandem Williams R such as MACD or MA.

It should be noted here that the range of-20 and-80 is not absolute in its use of the range Williams r. some traders use restrictions as-10 and-90 to be saturated and unsaturated bounds buy jualnya same as RSI.
Well we think enough reviews here to brief about Williams r.

Road to Success 3: Mental Analysis

Road to success 3
If technical analysis works so well, why would more and more of the trading community shift their focus from technical analysis of the market to mental analysis of themselves, meaning their own individual
trading psychology? To answer this question, you probably don't have to do anything more than ask yourself why you bought this book. The most likely reason is that you're dissatisfied with the difference between what you perceive as the unlimited potential to make money and what you end up with on the bottom line.

That's the problem with technical analysis, if you want to call it a problem. Once you learn to identify patterns and read the market, you find there are limitless opportunities to make money. But, as I'm sure you already know, there can also be a huge gap between what you understand about the markets, and your ability to transform that knowledge into consistent profits or a steadily rising equity curve. Think about the number of times you've looked at a price chart and said to yourself, "Hmmm, it looks like the market is going up (or down, as the case may be)," and what you thought was going to happen actually happened. But you did nothing except watch the market move while you anguished over all the money you could have made.

There's a big difference between predicting that something will happen in the market (and thinking about all the money you could have made) and the reality of actually getting into and out of trades. I call this difference, and others like it, a "psychological gap" that can make trading one of the most difficult  endeavors you could choose to undertake and certainly one of the most mysterious to master.

The big question is: Can trading be mastered? Is it possible to experience trading with the same ease and simplicity implied when you are only watching the market and thinking about success, as opposed to actually having to put on and take off trades? Not only is the answer an unequivocal "yes," but that's also exactly what this book is designed to give you—the insight and understanding you need about yourself and about the nature of trading.

So the result is that actually doing it becomes as easy, simple, and stress-free as when you are just watching the market and thinking about doing it. This may seem like a tall order, and to some of you it may even seem impossible. But it's not. There are people who have mastered the art of trading, who have closed the gap between the possibilities available and their bottom-line performance. But as you might
expect, these winners are relatively few in number compared with the number of traders who experience varying degrees of frustration, all the way to extreme exasperation, wondering why they can't create
the consistent success they so desperately desire. In fact, the differences between these two groups of traders (the consistent winners and everyone else) are analogous to the differences between the Earth and the moon. The Earth and moon are both celestial bodies that exist in the same solar system, so they do
have something in common. But they are as different in nature and characteristics as night and day. By the same token, anyone who puts on a trade can claim to be a trader, but when you compare the characteristics
of the handful of consistent winners with the characteristics of most other traders, you'll find they're also as different as nightand day.

If going to the moon represents consistent success as a trader, we can say that getting to the moon is possible. The journey is extremely difficult and only a handful of people have made it. From our perspective here on Earth, the moon is usually visible every night and it seems so close that we could just reach out and touch it. Trading successfully feels the same way. On any given day, week, or month, the markets make available vast amounts of money to anyone who has the capacity to put on a trade. Since the markets are in constant motion, this money is also constantly flowing, which makes the possibilities for success greatly magnified and seemingly within your grasp. I use the word "seemingly" to make an important distinction between the two groups of traders. For those who have learned how to be consistent, or have broken through what I call the "threshold of consistency," the money is not only within their grasp; they can virtually take it at will. I'm sure that some will find this statement shocking or
difficult to believe, but it is true. There are some limitations, but for the most part, money flows into the accounts of these traders with such ease and effortlessness that it literally boggles most people's minds.

However, for the traders who have not evolved into this select group, the word "seemingly" means exactly what it implies. It seems as if the consistency or ultimate success they desire is "at hand," or "within their grasp," just before it slips away or evaporates before their eyes, time and time again. The only thing about trading that is consistent with this group is emotional pain. Yes, they certainly have moments of elation, but it is not an exaggeration to say that most of the time they are in a state of fear, anger, frustration, anxiety, disappointment, betrayal, and regret.

So what separates these two groups of traders? Is it intelligence? Are the consistent winners just plain smarter than everyone else? Do they work harder? Are they better analysts, or do they have access to better trading systems? Do they possess inherent personality characteristics that make it easier for them to deal with the intense pressures of trading?

All of these possibilities sound quite plausible, except when you consider that most of the trading industry's failures are also some of society's brightest and most accomplished people. The largest group of consistent losers is composed primarily of doctors, lawyers, engineers, scientists, CEOs, wealthy retirees, and  entrepreneurs. Furthermore, most of the industry's best market analysts are the worst traders imaginable. Intelligence and good market analysis can certainly contribute to success, but they are not the defining factors that separate the consistent winners from everyone else. Well, if it isn't intelligence or better analysis, then what could it be? Having worked with some of the best and some of the worst traders in the business, and having helped some of the worst become some of the best, I can state without a doubt that there are specific reasons why the best traders consistently out-perform everyone else. If I had to distill all of the reasons down to one, I would simply say that the best traders think differently from the rest.

I know that doesn't sound very profound, but it does have profound implications if you consider what it means to think differently. To one degree or another, all of us think differently from everyone else. We may not always be mindful of this fact; it seems natural to assume that other people share our perceptions and interpretations of events. In fact, this assumption continues to seem valid until we find ourselves in a basic, fundamental disagreement with someone about something we both experienced. Other than our physical features, the way we think is what makes us unique, probably even more unique than our physical features do. Let's get back to traders. What is different about die way the best traders think as opposed to how those who are still struggling think? While the markets can be described as an arena of endless
opportunities, they simultaneously confront the individual with some of the most sustained, adverse psychological conditions you can expose yourself to. At some point, everyone who trades learns something
about the markets that will indicate when opportunities exist. But learning how to identify an opportunity to buy or sell does not mean that you have learned to think like a trader.

The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—a unique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused, and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions. As a result, they are no longer susceptible to the common fears and trading errors that plague everyone else. Everyone who trades ends up learning something about the markets; very few people who trade ever learn the attitudes that are absolutely essential to becoming a consistent winner. Just as people can learn to perfect the proper technique
for swinging a golf club or tennis racket, their consistency, or lack of it, will without a doubt come from their attitude Traders who make it beyond "the threshold of consistency" usually experience a great deal of pain (both emotional and financial) before they acquire the land of attitude that allows them to function effectively in the market environment.

The rare exceptions are usually those who were born into successful trading families or who started their trading careers under the guidance of someone who understood the true nature of trading, and, just as important, knew how to teach it. Why are emotional pain and financial disaster common among traders? The simple answer is that most of us weren't fortunate enough to start our trading careers with the proper guidance. However, the reasons go much deeper than this. I have spent the last seventeen years dissecting the psychological dynamics behind trading so that I could develop effective methods for teaching the principles of success. What I've discovered is that trading is chock full of paradoxes and contradictions in thinking that make it extremely difficult to learn how to be successful. In fact, if I had to choose one word that encapsulates the nature of trading, it would be "paradox."  (According to the dictionary, a paradox is something that seems to have  contradictory qualities or that is contrary to common belief or what generally makes sense to people.)

Financial and emotional disaster are common among traders because many of the perspectives, attitudes, and principles that would otherwise make perfect sense and work quite well in our daily lives have the opposite effect in the trading environment. They just don't work. Not knowing this, most traders start their careers with a fundamental lack of understanding of what it means to be a trader, the skills that are involved, and the depth to which those skills need to be developed.

Here is a prime example of what I am talking about: Trading is inherently risky. To my knowledge, no trade has a guaranteed outcome; therefore, the possibility of being wrong and losing money is always present. So when you put on a trade, can you consider yourself  a risk-taker? Even though this may sound like a trick question, it is not.

The logical answer to the question is, unequivocally, yes. If I engage in an activity that is inherently risky, then I must be a risktaker. This is a perfectly reasonable assumption for any trader to make. In fact, not only do virtually all traders make this assumption, but most traders take pride in thinking of themselves as risk-takers.

The problem is that this assumption couldn't be further from the truth. Of course, any trader is taking a risk when you put on a trade, but that doesn't mean that you are correspondingly accepting that risk. In other words, all trades are risky because the outcomes are probable—not guaranteed. But do most traders really believe they are taking a risk when they put on a trade? Have they really accepted that the trade has a non-guaranteed, probable outcome? Furthermore, have they fully accepted the possible consequences?
The answer is, unequivocally, no! Most traders have absolutely no concept of what it means to be a risk-taker in the way a successful trader thinks about risk. The best traders not only take the risk, they have also learned to accept and embrace that risk. There is a huge psychological gap between assuming you are a risk-taker because you put on trades and fully accepting the risks inherent in each trade. When you fully accept the risks, it will have profound implications on your bottom-line performance. The best traders can put on a trade without the slightest bit of hesitation or conflict, and just as freely and without hesitation or conflict,
admit it isn't working.

They can get out of the trade—even with a loss—and doing so doesn't resonate the slightest bit of emotional discomfort. In other words, the risks inherent in trading do not cause the best traders to lose their discipline, focus, or sense of confidence. If you are unable to trade without the slightest bit of emotional dis- comfort (specifically, fear), then you have not learned how to accept the risks inherent in trading. This is a big problem, because to whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to
which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully. Learning to truly accept the risks in any endeavor can be difficult,
but it is extremely difficult for traders, especially considering what's at stake. What are we generally most afraid of (besides dying or public speaking)? Certainly, losing money and being wrong both
rank close to the top of the list. Admitting we are wrong and losing money to boot can be extremely painful, and certainly something to avoid. Yet as traders, we are confronted with these two possibilities
virtually every moment we are in a trade.

Now, you might be saying to yourself, "Apart from the fact that it hurts so much, it's natural to not want to be wrong and lose something; therefore, it's appropriate for me to do whatever I can to avoid it." I agree with you. But it is also this natural tendency that makes trading (which looks like it should be easy) extremely
difficult. Trading presents us with a fundamental paradox: How do we remain disciplined, focused, and confident in the face of constant uncertainty? When you have learned how to "think" like a trader, that's exactly what you'll be able to do. Learning how to redefine your trading activities in a way that allows you to completely accept the risk is the key to thinking like a successful trader. Learning to accept the risk is a trading skill—the most important skill you can learn. Yet it's rare that developing traders focus any attention or expend any effort to learn it.

When you learn the trading skill of risk acceptance, the market will not be able to generate information that you define or interpret as painful. If the information the market generates doesn't have the potential to cause you emotional pain, there's nothing to avoid. It is just information, telling you what the  possibilities are. This is called an objective perspective—one that is not skewed or distorted by what
you are afraid is going to happen or not happen. I'm sure there isn't one trader reading this book who hasn't
gotten into trades too soon—before the market has actually generated a signal, or too late—long after the market has generated a signal.

What trader hasn't convinced himself not to take a loss and, as a result, had it turn into a bigger one; or got out of winning trades too soon; or found himself in winning trades but didn't take any profits at all, and then let the trades turn into losers; or moved stoplosses closer to his entry point, only to get stopped out and have the market go back in his direction? These are but a few of the many errors traders perpetuate upon themselves time and time again.

These are not market-generated errors. That is, these errors do not come from the market. The market is neutral, in the sense that it moves and generates information about itself. Movement and information
provide each of us with the opportunity to do something, but that's all! The markets don't have any power over the unique way in which each of us perceives and interprets this information, or control of the decisions and actions we take as a result. The errors I already mentioned and many more are strictly the result of what I call "faulty trading attitudes and perspectives." Faulty attitudes that foster fear instead of trust and  confidence.

I don't think I could put the difference between the consistent winners and everyone else more simply than this: The best traders aren't afraid. They aren't afraid because they have developed attitudes that give them the greatest degree of mental flexibility to flow in and out of trades based on what the market is telling them about the possibilities from its perspective. At the same time, the best traders have developed attitudes that prevent them from getting reckless. Everyone else is afraid, to some degree or another. When they're not afraid, they have the tendency to become reckless and to create the kind of experience for themselves that will cause them to be afraid from that point on.

Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make—causing the money to just evaporate before your eyes—will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table. What I call the four primary trading fears. Now, you may be saying to yourself, "I don't know about this: I've always thought traders should have a healthy fear of the markets." Again, this is a perfectly logical and reasonable assumption. But when it comes to trading, your fears will act against you in such a way that you will cause the very thing you are afraid of to actually happen. If you're afraid of being wrong, your fear will act upon your perception of market information in a way that will cause you to do something that ends up making you wrong. When you are fearful, no other possibilities exist. You can't
perceive other possibilities or act on them properly, even if you did manage to perceive them, because fear is immobilizing. Physically, it causes us to freeze or run. Mentally, it causes us to narrow our focus of attention to the object of our fear. This means that thoughts about other possibilities, as well as other available information from the market, get blocked. You won't think about all the rational things you've learned about the market until you are no longer afraid and the event is over. Then you will think to yourself, "I knew that.

Why didn't I think of it then?" or, "Why couldn't I act on it then?" It's extremely difficult to perceive that the source of these problems is our own inappropriate attitudes. That's what makes fear so insidious. Many of the thinking patterns that adversely affect our trading are a function of the natural ways in which we were brought up to think and see the world. These thinking patterns are so deeply ingrained that it rarely occurs to us that the source of our trading difficulties is internal, derived from our state of mind. Indeed, it seems
much more natural to see the source of a problem as external, in the market, because it feels like the market is causing our pain, frustration, and dissatisfaction. Obviously these are abstract concepts and certainly not something most traders are going to concern themselves with. Yet understanding the relationship between beliefs, attitudes, and perception is as fundamental to trading as learning how to serve is to tennis, or
as learning how to swing a club is to golf. Put another way, understanding and controlling your perception of market information is important only to the extent that you want to achieve consistent results.

I say this because there is something else about trading that is as true as the statement I just made: You don't have to know anything about yourself or the markets to put on a winning trade, just as you don't have to know the proper way to swing a tennis racket or golf club in order to hit a good shot from time to time. The first time I played golf, I hit several good shots throughout the game even though I hadn't learned any particular technique; but my score was still over 120 for 18 holes. Obviously, to improve my overall score, I
needed to learn technique. Of course, the same is true for trading. We need technique to achieve consistency. But what technique? This is truly one of the most perplexing aspects of learning how to trade effectively. If we aren't aware of, or don't understand, how our beliefs and attitudes affect our perception of market information, it will seem as if it is the market's behavior that is causing the lack of consistency. As a result, it would stand to reason that the best way to avoid losses and become consistent would be to learn more about the markets.

This bit of logic is a trap that almost all traders fall into at some point, and it seems to make perfect sense. But this approach doesn't work. The market simply offers too many—often conflicting—variables to consider. Furthermore, there are no limits to the market's behavior. It can do anything at any moment. As a matter of fact, because every person who trades is a market variable, it can be said that any single trader can cause virtually anything to happen.

This means that no matter how much you learn about the market's behavior, no matter how brilliant an analyst you become, you will never learn enough to anticipate every possible way that the market can make you wrong or cause you to lose money. So if you are afraid of being wrong or losing money, it means you will never learn enough to compensate for the negative effects these fears will have on your ability to be objective and your ability to act without hesitation. In other words, you won't be confident in the face of constant uncertainty. The hard, cold reality of trading is that every trade has an uncertain outcome. Unless you learn to completely accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome, you will try either consciously or unconsciously to avoid any possibility you define as painful. In the process, you will subject yourself to any number of self-generated, costly errors. Now, I am not suggesting that we don't need some form of market analysis or methodology to define opportunities and allow us to recognize them; we certainly do.

However, market analysis is not the path to consistent results. It will not solve the trading problems created
by lack of confidence, lack of discipline, or improper focus. When you operate from the assumption that more or better analysis will create consistency, you will be driven to gather as many market variables as possible into your arsenal of trading tools. But what happens then? You are still disappointed and betrayed by the markets, time and again, because of something you didn't see or give enough consideration to. It will feel like you can't trust the markets; but the reality is, you can't trust yourself. Confidence and fear are contradictory states of mind that both stem from our beliefs and attitudes. To be confident, functioning in
an environment where you can easily lose more than you intend to risk, requires absolute trust in yourself.

However, you won't be able to achieve that trust until you have trained your mind to override your natural inclination to think in ways that are counterproductive to being a consistently successful trader. Learning how to analyze the market's behavior is simply not the appropriate training. You have two choices: You can try to eliminate risk by learning about as many market variables as possible. Or vou can learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you're no longer afraid.
When you've achieved a state of mind where you truly accept the risk, you won't have the potential to define and interpret market information in painful ways. When you eliminate the potential to define market information in painful ways, you also eliminate the tendency to rationalize, hesitate, jump the gun, hope that the market will give you money, or hope that the market will save you from your inability to cut your losses.

As long as you are susceptible to the lands of errors that are the result of rationalizing, justifying, hesitating, hoping, and jumping the gun, you will not be able to trust yourself. If you can't trust yourself to be objective and to always act in your own best interests, achieving consistent results will be next to impossible. Trying to do something that looks so simple may well be the most exasperating thing you will ever attempt to do. The irony is that, when you have the appropriate attitude, when you have acquired a "trader s mind-set" and can remain confident in the face of constant uncertainty, trading will be as easy and simple as you probably thought it was when you first started out.

So, what is the solution? You will need to learn how to adjust your attitudes and beliefs about trading in such a way that you can trade without the slightest bit of fear, but at the same time keep a framework in place that does not allow you to become reckless. That's exactly what this book is designed to teach you.
As you move ahead, I would like you to keep something in mind. The successful trader that you want to become is a future projection of yourself that you have to grow into. Growth implies expansion,
learning, and creating a new way of expressing yourself. This is true even if you're already a successful trader and are reading this book to become more successful. Many of the new ways in which you will learn
to express yourself will be in direct conflict with ideas and beliefs you presently hold about the nature of trading. You may or may not already be aware of some of these beliefs. In any case, what you currently hold to be true about the nature of trading will argue to keep things just the way they are, in spite of your frustrations and unsatisfying results.

These internal arguments are natural. My challenge in this book is to help you resolve these arguments as efficiently as possible. Your willingness to consider that other possibilities exist—possibilities that you may not be aware of or may not have given enough consideration to—will obviously make the learning process faster and easier.

Source : trading in the zone by mark douglas

Saturday, November 23, 2013

The Road to Success 2: Technical Analysis

Road to success 2
 Technical analysis has been around for as long as there have been organized markets in the form of exchanges. But the trading community didn't accept technical analysis as a viable tool for making
money until the late 1970s or early 1980s. Here's what the technical analyst knew that it took the mainstream market community generations to catch on to.  A finite number of traders participate in the markets on any given day, week, or month. Many of these traders do the same lands of things over and over in their attempt to make money. In other words, individuals develop behavior patterns, and a group of individuals, interacting with one another on a consistent basis, form collective behavior patterns. These behavior patterns are observable and quantifiable, and they repeat themselves with statistical reliability.

Technical analysis is a method that organizes this collective behavior into identifiable patterns that can give a clear indication of when there is a greater probability of one thing happening over another. In a sense, technical analysis allows you to get into the mind of the market to anticipate what's likely to happen next, based on the kind of patterns the market generated at some previous moment. As a method for projecting future price movement, technical analysis has turned out to be far superior to a purely fundamental approach. It keeps the trader focused on what the market is doing now in relation to what it has done in the past, instead of focusing on what the market should be doing based solely on what is logical and reasonable as determined by a mathematical model. On the other hand, fundamental analysis creates what I call a "reality gap" between "what should be" and "what is." The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.

In contrast, technical analysis not only closes this reality gap, but also makes available to the trader a virtually unlimited number of possibilities to take advantage of. The technical approach opens up
many more possibilities because it identifies how the same repeatable behavior patterns occur in every time frame—moment-tomoment, daily, weekly, yearly, and every time span in between. In
other words, technical analysis turns the market into an endless stream of opportunities to enrich oneself.

The Road to Success 1 : Fundamental analysis

Fundamental, technical, or mental analysis? Analyzed your trading with forex plus.
Road to success 1

Who remembers when fundamental analysis was considered the only real or proper way to make trading decisions? When I started trading in 1978, technical analysis was used by only a handful of traders, who
were considered by the rest of the market community to be, at the very least, crazy. As difficult as it is to believe now, it wasn't very long ago when Wall Street and most of the major funds and financial institutions
thought that technical analysis was some form of mystical hocus-pocus.

Now, of course, just the opposite is true. Almost all experienced traders use some form of technical analysis to help them formulate their trading strategies. Except for some small, isolated pockets in the
academic community, the "purely" fundamental analyst is virtually  extinct. What caused this dramatic shift in perspective? I'm sure it's no surprise to anyone that the answer to this question is very simple: Money!

The problem with making trading decisions from a strictly fundamental perspective is the inherent difficulty
of making money consistently using this approach. For those of you who may not be familiar with fundamental analysis, let me explain. Fundamental analysis attempts to take into consideration all the variables that could affect the relative balance or imbalance between the supply of and the possible demand for any particular stock, commodity, or financial instrument. Using primarily mathematical models that weigh the significance of a variety of factors (interest rates, balance sheets, weather patterns, and numerous others), the analyst projects what the price should be at some point in the future.

The problem with these models is that they rarely, if ever, factor in other traders as variables. People, expressing their beliefs and expectations about the future, make prices move—not models. The fact that a model makes a logical and reasonable projection based on all the relevant variables is not of much value if the traders who are responsible for most of the trading volume are not aware of the model or don't believe in it. As a matter of fact, many traders, especially those on the floors of the futures exchanges who have the ability to move prices very dramatically in one direction or the other, usually don't have the slightest concept of the fundamental supply and demand factors that are supposed to affect prices.

Furthermore, at any given moment, much of their trading activity is prompted by a response to emotional factors that are completely outside the parameters of the fundamental model. In other words, the people who trade (and consequently move prices) don't always act in a rational manner. Ultimately, the fundamental analyst could find that a prediction about where prices should be at some point in the future is correct. But in the meantime, price movement could be so volatile that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to stay in a trade in order to realize the objective.

Friday, November 22, 2013

What Is Scalping

Scalping comes from the United Kingdom (scalp) which means it was fleas jump. Well with this type of scalping trading is indeed more or less adhered to this doctrine. Without downgrading the Scalper intends world, they often take advantage of the situation a very small price movements. For them, profits 10-15 points a day is already quite important is the stbilitity.

The intent of this by taking advantage of that, as small as the Scalper holds that it is a lot easier than chasing gains 100 points in a single trading. Often they also take the number of lots that are a lot more for one opening position compared to most traders. With a capital of $ 3000 if the Scalper can open the position up to 5 times! What if there is a margin call? Well point margin call it for them is their Stop Loss point! But rather when profit by 10 points they earn, just imagine 10 x 5 = 50 lots. But this time it's a lot easier because only targeted 10 points only. Not to mention due to only target profit 10 points, they can open a position many times to tens of times a day. Hmm ... how active they are!

For a scalper, spread extremely important role for them. The scalper often look for brokers with a very small spread. The smaller will be the better because of their 1-2 points difference alone is very important. That's why they used to trade on a foreign broker.

Advantages of trading with a model like this is easy it is We get the profit that we pursue. The movement of 10 points is even when the market is being very-very quiet and exchanges of London and New York are closed! The liveliness of our opening position is also certainly a lot bigger. The included capital also need not be large at all. $ 3000 was more than enough. Even the $ 1000 was not the problem.

Well that's what yg is scalping, certainly in customize with each trader's style and origin of profit closed all shutdown pc/laptop keeps refresing .... hehehehe

Keep smiley with forex plus...

SmartFX

This time I will share about trading strategies to use smartFX my collection. This strategy can be used globally for all currencies should be disciplined in accordance with the existing rules and uses a strict money management.
 
Indicators used:
  1. EMA 50 on chart
  2. EMA 120 on cart
  3. Hist_Step_MA_Stoch_KV1_Ex_03 set at 2000 bars. Set Filters on Step: +0,04 and -0,04
  4. Hist_StepMA_Stoch is the main indicator here. When Hist_Step_MA_Stoch and A Nina give signal simultaneously, the better. Do not trade if they give opposite signals.

TF: 30 minutes.  Trade time: 08:00 to 18:00t 
  1. FiboPiv_v2
  2. MAX Movin Average set at 50, 14, 2000, 2
  3. SDX-TZBreakout
  4. Camarilladt7 with L3, L4, L5 and H3, H4 and H5.

Standard or Level 1 signals
  • Buy when price crosses EMA 50 and new bar opens above. Hist_StepMA_Stoch must be green.
  • Sell when price crosses EMA 50 and new bar opens below. Hist_StepMA_Stoch must be red. If price and Hist_StepMA_Stoch crosses are simultaneous, the better.  
Level 2 signals (riskier):
For instance, when price is above EMA 50 with Hist_StepMA_Stoch in green. Price then opens one bar at least below EMA 50 and Hist_StepMA_Stoch keeps in green mode. When price opens again above EMA 50 with Hist_StepMA_Stoch validating (green), we can buy. The opposite for a sell.  

Level 3 signals (riskier):
 For instance, we are in bullish mode: price above EMA 50 and Hist_StepMA_Stoch in green. Suddenly, price goes down crossing or without crossing EMA 50 and obviously without opening below it. Hist_StepMA_Stoch changes to red. We buy when price goes up again always validated by Hist_StepMA_Stoch that should change to green again. 

Level 4 signals (Take care):

Level 4 is when price, after a consolidation of a few bars, breaks through the last high or low. The main thing we need is an indication of strength, and if we don't get it, it could be a trap! 

Obviously, the breakout down should have Hist_StepMa_Stoch in red and green for the opposite.  Something to take into account:  Pairs to trade: EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD.   When bar opens more than 20 pips above/below EMA 50, the signal is riskier. 

Do not buy/sell, for instance, EURUSD because GBPUSD has a signal. Wait for the signal to come in each pair you want to trade. Look at EURGBP, USDCHF and US Dollar Index always.  FOCUS, PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE.  Graphics:  

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The world's largest forex traders

Who is the most great perform foreign exchange transactions around the world? Large traders who are able to master the trade market in the world of forex. When these traders make transactions, price movements will be increased quickly, and most of the movement is done by traders who ruled the Giants about 53% of the total trade in the market.

Data from research conducted by the IFSL or abbreviation of International Financial Services London mentions, the overall foreign exchange turnover had reached 2.7 trillion u.s. dollars. The Data taken in April 2006 with dollar each country include: London, Tokyo, New York, and Singapore.

If rotation of the prices controlled by 53% by traders of the Giants, then who are they? And how their role in controlling the market prices in the future? Here is information 7 out of 10 giant traders who can move the market.

1. Deutsche Bank AG
The name of the multinational banks and world exploration almost employing 102.060 workers in 2010. Its headquarters are located in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. The company has been established since 1870. If you want to come to his company in Indonesia, you can find it in Jakarta and Surabaya. eutsche Bank AG has an important role in transactions of around 14% of the total volume of the market. Site details: www.db.com

2. UBS AG
Is a multinational corporation engaged in finance. The company was founded in 1998 and has had approximately 77.783 employees as at 31 December 2008. UBS is a combination of the two companies that Union Bank of Switzerland and Switzerland Bank Corporation with offices in Switzerland. The company has an important role that ruled 11.86% of the total volume of the market. Site details: www.ubs.com

3. Citigroup
Is an international company engaged in the field of financial services. Founded on 7 April 1998 and has had approximately 299,000 workers in 2006. The company has an important role in transactions of approximately 10.39% of the total volume of the market. Its headquarters are in New York, United States. Site details: www.citigroup.com

4. Barclays Capital
A bank that is engaged in global investment. Established since 1997 and has had employees about 25.500 in 2009. The Bank has a key role in the transaction about 6.61% of the total volume of the market. Its headquarters are in the United Kingdom (the sovereign State located removed the northwest coast of continental Europe). Full Site: BarCap.com

5. The Royal Bank of Scotland
Is a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Scotland Group, which is engaged in the field of retail banking. Founded in 1727 and has employees around 141.000. The company has an important role in transactions of about 6.43% of the total volume of the market. Its headquarters are in Britain Edinburgh, Scotland. Full Site: www.rbs.co.uk

6. Goldman Sachs
A bank in the United States. This is the bank's founder Marcus Goldman. The Bank was founded in 1869 and has hired 30.067 employees in 2008. The Bank has an important role in transactions of around 5.25% of the total volume of the market. Its headquarters are in New York City, New York, United States. Site details: GoldmanSachs.com

7. HSBC
Is one of the largest banking groups in the world. HSBC, based in London, with headquarters in London, the HSBC Tower. The Bank was founded in 1865 and has hired 253,000 employees. HSBC has an important role in the transaction about 5.04% of the total volume of the market. Site details: www.hsbc.com

Thursday, November 21, 2013

The Art of Trading - Sun Tzu part 2

In the previous article about Sun Tzu strategy that discusses how to understand the market, the trader's psychology, money management, and stay away from the market. The following about the art of trading - Sun Tzu part 2.

The Art of Trading
"Do not repeat the tactics that have earned You a victory, but let your method governed by variations in a State without limits." (Sun Tzu)
Over the long-term, the market conditions changed. A system that worked in the past may not be relevant in the new market conditions. You have to review and fine tune the system when market conditions change. You will know when you realize you have more losses than usual even though you are complying with the rules of the system with strict.

Trading opportunity when it comes, you have to have a set of predetermined rules or system to help you evaluate potential trading (measures). Second, you must know your position size to buy true/lot number (quantity) is based on the size of your capital. Third, you must determine the cut loss and profit taking price and calculate the risk reward ratio to ensure a minimum of 2 times the risk reward you. Fourth, you should know what is the probability of winning using your system in current market conditions. Lastly, trade and wait for the market to decide if you are right in the elections caused profit.

"A clever, avoiding the sharp spiritual, but soon attacked him when spiritual is being sluggish and tends to return. This is the art of studying moods. "(Sun Tzu)


The central idea of trading is range in reading the mood of the market. Price action and volume indicators, are signs for traders to see the mood of the market and the behavior of investors. You will trade well when you can interpret the mood.

"This is a military axiom not to go up against the enemy, or to oppose him when he came to decline." (Sun Tzu)
The key to trading not to fight the trend. When the market is trending up, looking for opportunities for long and not short. Similarly, if the market trend to decline, look for opportunities to short and not long.

"General forward without envy the fame and retreats without fearing disgrace, whose only thought is to protect his country and do good service for its sovereignty, is the jewel of the Kingdom." (Sun Tzu)
Traders should win in the market rather than to prove and show off that she's right, but for profit. When he is wrong, he must cut loss without feeling disgrace. Only by having this mentality, he can do the best trading in his account.


IN TERMS OF WINS IN THE MARKET

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself, but do not know the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle "(Sun Tzu)

This is a common phrase cited. In trading, it is true that you need to know yourself. This includes an understanding of psychology you are and how You behave or react to profits and losses. The enemy in this case is the market. You need to understand the market before you make any investment. You need to take the time to understand the market, make sure to have the advantage over the rest of the investors. With a good understanding, you can design and use the system to take advantage of market movements. In addition, you will be able to apply the right tactics to beat the market. If you do not understand the market and you do not understand yourself, chances are you will end up in the loss.

"To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." (Sun Tzu)

As a trader, you need to protect your trading capital and abide by your trading system for entry and exit. After you make sure you have done your part, the amount of profit or loss is to be determined by the market. You do not have the right to request any amount of profit from the market. Even if you follow all the rules strictly, perhaps you can loss but you have to accept it and move on.

"What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only WINS, but excels in winning with ease. He won the battle with strives to no errors. Make no mistake is what builds the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated. Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy. " (Sun Tzu)

For trading correct is to follow the system or set of rules. Making a mistake means traders do not comply with system or rule when trading. Traders don't follow the rules because he was influenced by his emotions, which in turn affected by the news, recommendations, and comments from others. To win in the market, the trader must strive not to make mistakes, that is, he should be able to do without trading anyone influencing her decision making. This is especially true when there is a chance the cut loss. A trader who failed to cut loss did a big mistake. Because one mistake can wipe out profits and capital. It is very important to position themselves in the market by working without making a mistake.

"The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive them, not on the chance they were not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have been making unwavering positions." (Sun Tzu)
As discussed previously, a trader must make intricate to put himself in a position such that it has a higher probability to win in the market. You don't have to have the mentality of conquering the market. Benefits are determined by the market and You can't force it.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Kiwi new zealand more profitable

Most forex traders trade with USD, EUR, GBP or other pairs that they think is more popular. There is a single currency appears to be slightly considered one eye but is actually quite promising, the New Zealand dollar aka Kiwi. There are 3 reasons to trade the Kiwi, namely:
Kiwi new zealand more profitable
1. Economic Data Positively Enough NZ
Most investors are often made by the misgivings of Obama's Domestic economic growth and economic recovery that boisterous low in the Euro area, while the economic data reports New Zealand is often more positive and stable olebih. A few weeks ago the trust business ANZ considerable surprise pelonjakan print. Neither with other economic data such as inflation, trade balance per quarter, and figures tindeks labor is encouraging. But indeed, the currency is still affected by the ebb and flow of strong economic and commodity China, considering Lands Panda is the number one trading partner Country the Kiwi.

2. There is no threat from RBNZ

Unlike the central banks of other countries such as the BOE, of the BOJ, RBA, and so on, the Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will not show fangs for local currency if observed continuously strengthened. That means, the RBNZ is not too influential on export. This is due to the Governor more than happy to take advantage of Wheeler's limitation of resources rather than the central bank to intervene in currency directly.

3. the NZD/USD has an opportunity to Gain More
If we look at one of the graph that shows the movement of haian NZD/USD, the pair had just bounced off of the 200 SMA and support mid-long term channel. While the pair bounced off, traders can take hundreds of pips if Cech penetrate punck channel, but with a record risk ratio is 1: 1.

Sun Tzu Strategy

Until this time the world recognizes the mysterious Sun Tzu as the Supreme teacher of the art of war. Sun Tzu is known to be born on 535 BC in the city of Tung's Shantung peninsula ."A General who protect the soldiers as a baby, will guide them into the deepest abyss. A General who treat the soldiers like his beloved siblings, will make them willing to die for him".
Sun Tzu Strategy

The spirit and the art of war Sun Tzu style if applied in forex trading will result in a tremendous way of trading. As a ilustratasi in the use of strategy Sun Tzu, General as you, fighting as trading, troops as capital/your money.

IN TERMS OF UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET

1. "We are not fit to lead an army on the March unless we are familiar with the face of his country-the mountains and forests, cliffs and traps as well as swamps." (Sun Tzu).

Like what Warren Buffett puts it, "the risk of not knowing what you are doing. If you do not understand the market, you are not fit to invest in it. You will get your capital (your army) was wiped out "

2. "He who knows all this, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice, will win the battle." (Sun Tzu).

Not good enough if we only know the theories and concepts behind the investment. A trader should be able to apply that knowledge correctly to gain profit from the market.


IN TERMS OF PSYCHOLOGY TRADER

"A general, who was unable to control his annoyance, will launch his men to attack like ants swarming, resulted in one third of his men died, while the city was still uncontrollably. Such is the ill effects of the siege. " (Sun Tzu)

Don't be emotionally affected by the market or harm. If traders are too eager to profit or revenge losses, traders can lose sanity and become irrational. The decisions are likely to be challenged and ended up with a loss. Such is the ill effects of impulsive trading

"There are five dangerous faults which may affect a General:
  1. faux pas, that leads to destruction,
  2. the coward, which leads to being caught,
  3. the hasty temperament, which can be triggered by contempt,
  4. the enjoyment of honor which is sensitive to shame,
  5. over-attention on the troops, who took him on concerns and issues.

Psychology is the key to the trader. If he can't control his emotions and his character, he will lose money in the market. If he's sloppy, he will make a desperate trading without taking into account the opportunities to win. If he is a coward, he never could win big enough to cover its losses. If he has a temperament that is hasty, he will try to take revenge on the market end up with bigger losses. If she prides itself on when he wins, he will be calm when he lost and he'll never learn from my mistakes. If he is over attention on the loss, he would always worry about and have never been able to make deals more with better.

IN TERMS OF MANAGEMENT OF MONEY

"Control of large armies/settings is the same principle as control over some people, it is  about the Division of their numbers." (Sun Tzu)

Trading big capital is the same is the case with small capital trading. You should not be affected by the absolute figures of losses and gains when trading. Follow the normal rules and systems and share capital according to the lot and the right position.

IN TERMS OF MOVING AWAY FROM MARKET

"He's going to win, who knows when to fight and when not to fight." (Sun Tzu)

Opportunities are not always available in the market. There are times that your trading system would not work and it is important for a absences from trading market. If you insist in the trading market in conditions like that, you'll end up in a series of losses and deplete your capital unnecessarily.

When you experience a series of losses, it was clear sign for you to stop trading. Contemplate whether it is a problem with myself, or a system that does not work under certain market conditions.

During live your reflection, stop all your trading activities until you find out the real problem. You will learn more about yourself, trading systems and market. This experience will help in assessing when to trade and when not to trade in the future. Do not fight not meaningless coward, it is the mantra of "survive to fight another day".

"If the battle is sure to produce a victory, then you must fight, even though authorities had forbidden it. If fighting will not result in victory, then you won't have to fight even when there is a bidding authority. "

It is important to learn to trading when there is a favorable opportunity to do so. But more importantly learned not to trading when unfavorable situations.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

See trend by Ichimoku

By utilizing Trading trend is the easiest way to generate higher profits, rather than not following the trend. So did the Ichimoku, which can be said as an indicator of the trend because the signal only appears when the trend is going. How to identify the trend has turned, and a new beginning. So traders can see clearly on the reversal of a transaction, use the Ichimoku indicator.

However, many of the traders didn't know how to take maximum advantage of a price movement once the indicator Ichimoku signals. One of the ways to make trading more profitable is by using a strategy of scaling out. Scaling out is the strategy process from the open position gradually, when the previous position had already reached a certain profit. So that we can increase profits by following a continuation of existing trends.

Because you apply a strategy of scaling out, then the transaction will indirectly has its disadvantages, namely when the price turns out to be reversible whereas we've already opened the position a lot. Then the risk of MC (Margin Call) will appear. So be aware of the occurrence of reversal of risk management is key to the strategy of scaling out.

Once you know the benefits and risks of the use of scaling out strategy, then it is time to know when is the best time for trading based on Ichimoku signals. The best time for trading based on Ichimoku signals is immediately after the transfer of the cloud on Ichimoku.

When you first open position is already started, you can focus on the reflection of the price support level when the trend happens to be riding.

See trend by Ichimoku

Whenever you want to trade when the price was out of the clouds and want to add positions in the hope the trend continues, then you can look for other Cloud on Ichimoku signals as a way of opening a new position.
Cloud of Ichimoku
From the pictures above you can observe and use the strategy of scaling out is easy. So in itself advantages that will come by getting bigger. Much bigger than other strategies instead. This strategy, typically hedge funds managers are also often make use of scaling out to boost their transactions. We're sure once you practice diligently, the result is sure to be seen with the balance continues to grow.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Ichimoku Cloud

Many traders worldwide will identify their trade in accordance with the time horizon of their dwellings. A trader might just become day traders. While the other tends to be traders who take advantage of her position, the focus for the hunt for the movement of swing, or late reversal, on the movement of the boom. Some of the indicators that have been created can possibly meet the types of traders, so too with the cloud on Ichimoku.
Ichimoku Cloud
All traders, wherever they are, can use the Ichimoku Cloud to identify the trend as early as possible and get the maximum profit to the point of such a trend, before changes are made. Ichimoku Cloud reports from scratch, you have been told about the importance of cloud that appears in the chart. This does not mean the appearance of clouds from these indicators are valued by the market, although there are indeed some such indicator, or a cloud of these indicators have a mystical power. But the cloud is a powerful depiction of the disposition of the market. When you combine cloud with the price you specify, then that's where the signals and trends can be identified very well. You must know about Two important function ichimoku to applied this indicators.

An important distinction must be made upon the consensus of the market varies all over the time frame. If you often use a daily chart, maybe you will see a very different picture from other traders who focus on minute 30 or multi hour charts. Each time frame has the risk of each that have notable differences (in relation to pips at stake versus profits that want to attain). Therefore, it's good You define your own time frame that is most convenient for you, and apply the indicators of your choice on the chart. Rather than figuring out which time frame produces many benefits for you.



Sunday, November 10, 2013

Two important functions ichimoku

Ichimoku signals function to help you determine where the trend of price movement will continue. As traders who like to follow the trend, you may tend to fight the instinct to get into trend when price moves to a higher point, to anticipate the sustainability trend. Can be likened to playing fire indeed, but this is inevitable by traders. This is where the Cloud on Ichimoku indicator functions. It works to give you a clear picture about the possibility of the latest price action.

Ichimoku provides information to traders with one approach on market analysis. Bottom line, you can see if the market is trending or not. If the market is trending, the Ichimoku can help see where points of support and resistance are currently located. Automatically You can also see the predictions of prices in the future.

The cloud on ichimoku gives you the ability to see if the trend is obvious and can be analyzed or not. When the price is above the cloud, often inform the trend is rising. While if the price is below cloud, usually the price trend for fall. In addition to two lines, the line triggers (trigger line) and baseline (base line), providing a time element that helps you to get into the direction of the trend.
Two important functions ichimoku
Ichimoku has two basic functions, which should be known to every trader. First, Ichimoku provides information about the trends that happen today. The Trader can look at lagging line, because it can help answer the above question. If the indicator is above the price of 26 last period, then we could technically says market conditions are currently rising.

The second function is to answer where prices are likely to continue. It is of course far more difficult to answer. Especially when not all traders must trust that the Ichimoku have definitive answer on a trend. There are various indicators in the world of forex trading. But the privilege is, he can Ichimoku show where prices will be in a week, month, even year counted from now on.

Simply put Ichimoku just focused on coverage of the important time and applying them forward and backward in time frame trading. The result is you get the full picture when trading-in the time frame that you choose.

Figure 26 is very important for the indicator Ichimoku. What's up with number 26? According to the discoverers, the number 26 is the most suitable in a set pattern of prices for the indicator Ichimoku. The period is used as the basic take on people who work for 26 working days in a month, and 26 weeks for half a year if you're in the weekly chart. Thus, this period is believed to be able to bring good luck long term analysis.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Martingale strategy ?

Martingale strategy is a strategy to get the profit by covering the total loss from the previous transaction through a doubling of capital. Therefore, when using martingale strategy, risk in the next transaction always rises with increasing losses. Rules of the game this is a martingale strategy when you transact the lot and if the result is a loss, then on subsequent transactions using lot 2 times. So when the final transaction of profit, the profit can already cover all losses from previous transactions.

Techniques of martingale is simple, for example:
-First, pairs of 1 lot and lost
-Secondly, attach the 2 lots (2 times before) and lost
-Third, plug the 4 lots and lost
-Fourth, 8 pairs lot finally win

This illustration can be seen in the example below:
BUY 1 lot =-$ 10 (loss)
BUY Lot 2 =-$ 20 (loss)
BUY Lot 3 =-$ 40 (loss)
BUY Lot 4 = + $ 80 (Profit)
----------------------------------- +
Profit = + $ 10
By using these principles, the number of lots must be 2 times larger than the previous (so that the number of lots are always 1 step ahead of previous defeat so that if WINS then losses previously closed and also earn a profit). Seen in theory, techniques of Martingale is definitely going to win. However, the problem is the Martingale on the question "when is winning?"

This Strategy is great for gamblers with large capital due to "Margin Call" at any time will suck your capital.
 

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

The Euro markets rise on Quarter II 2013

Research of the 104 banks to find out how well the Euro money market rates through the year 2013. This study also highlighted the major developments in the foreign exchange markets the Euro quarter II quarter II 2011, 2013. The total turnover was revealed after a study for Euro money market increased 3 percent year-on-year to Euro 75 trillion in the quarter, (II) for 2013. This is very different, because the currency Euro in the same period of the previous year turnover in EUR are only 18.

Market turnover of Euro currency recorded increases in the quarter II this year compared to last year. According to a survey conducted the European Central Bank, it is reflected from the interbank trading conditions are stable. The survey also found that the total trade activity remained concentrated on the period of a week or less than a day with deals accounting for as much as 70 percent of the total loans and 86 per cent of all lending activity. The mentioned percentages have not changed from last year.

In contrast to the market without a guarantee, a guaranteed market in Europe is precisely recorded the largest turnover in Euro other market segments. Where the Total turnover in the guaranteed loans grew by 17 percent to EUR 30 billion.

This occurs due to increased to 27 per cent in trading activities are maturing in less than a day. While the trade for longer maturities rising up to 7 percent of total trade is assured.

"The proportion of all bilateral repo transactions climbed to 71 percent from 56 percent in the past year. The activities of this segment remained broadly unchanged, "and said the European Central Bank.
 
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